Chicago PMI... New Order Bounceback

Posted on Wednesday, September 30, 2009

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One more day of travel for the "real job" so expect to see tomorrow's pertinent data points (ISM, Personal Income, Auto Sales, Construction Spending) in chart form late tomorrow evening / Friday morning. This morning's relevant data point as detailed by Peter Boockvar (via The Big Picture):

The September Chicago PMI was much weaker than expected and back below 50 at 46.1. Expectations were 52 vs 50 in August.

Maybe call it the Clunker hangover as New Orders fell 6 points to 46.3, a 3 month low and Order Backlogs fell 9 points to 36.7. Employment was little changed at 38.8. Inventories got a lift, rising 11.4 points to 38.9 and it's the highest since Nov '08 likely following an increase in auto production where plants went back online in July.

Bottom line, manufacturing will be a key contributor to the Q3 GDP rebound with the question always being sustainability but with final demand still sluggish, there is only so much of an improvement that we will see and today's number highlights that risk.