Inflation is Not an Issue...
Posted on Friday, January 15, 2010
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The consumer-price index rose 0.1 percent, less than forecast, following a 0.4 percent gain in November, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Excluding food and energy costs, the so-called core index also increased 0.1 percent.Looking at the details, inflation is concentrated in transportation (energy). Until pricing power moves into other areas (and labor), the Fed should have no concerns over keeping rates as low as they are.
Companies may have little success raising prices with unemployment projected to average 10 percent this year, the highest annual rate in seven decades. Federal Reserve policy makers have said they expect "subdued" inflation in coming months, allowing them to keep interest rates close to zero to help fuel growth.
"Consumer pricing pressures remain very subdued," said Russell Price, a senior economist at Ameriprise Financial Inc. in Detroit, who accurately forecast the rise in the core rate. "It gives the Fed further leeway to continue keeping rates where they are well through 2010."
Source: BLS
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Source: http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2010/01/inflation-is-not-issue.html
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On the Retail Inventory "Bounce"
Posted on Thursday, January 14, 2010
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U.S. business inventories rose more than expected in November, according to a government report on Thursday, supporting views of a pick-up in the economic growth pace during the fourth quarter.
The Commerce Department said inventories increased 0.4 percent after gaining 0.4 percent in October, previously reported as a 0.2 percent rise.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 0.2 percent rise in November. The rebuilding of inventories following a period of aggressive liquidation is among the factors expected to drive the economy's growth as it recovers from the most severe downturn since the 1930s.
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Source: http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2010/01/on-retail-inventory-bounce.html
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Retail Sales Disappoint
U.S. retail sales fell in December unexpectedly, signaling restraint by consumers during the holidays as the economy wrestles with high unemployment.
Retail sales declined 0.3%, the Commerce Department said Thursday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires forecast a 0.5% increase. November sales, however, were adjusted upward, to a 1.8% increase from a previously reported 1.3% gain. October sales also rose strongly, up 1.2%.
Excluding the car sector, all other retail sales in December fell 0.2%. Economists expected a 0.3% increase. The numbers were a disappointment for the economic recovery. The retail sales data are an important indicator of consumer spending. Consumer spending makes up 70% of GDP, which is the broad measure of U.S. economic activity. Thursday's report suggests high joblessness is restraining consumers and will mute the recovery.
Forget about the overall total and look at the details. Driving more than half the contribution was an increase in the sale of gasoline (driven by the jump in the price of gasoline).
Source: Census
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Source: http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2010/01/retail-sales-disappoint.html
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Australia in Full Recovery Mode
Posted on Wednesday, January 13, 2010
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Australia's unemployment rate fell to a seasonally adjusted 5.5 per cent in December from 5.6 per cent in November.
Total employment rose by 35,200 to 10,906 million in December, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said.
Economists on average had expected an unemployment rate of 5.8 per cent in December, with the number of employed up 10,000.
The number of people in full-time work rose 7300 to 7.64 million in December, from 7.63m, while the number of people in part-time work rose 27,900 to 3.27m from 3.24m.
A commodity driven economy that has a close proximity to the world's fastest growing / largest commodity importing economy (China) is a beautiful thing...
Source: ABS
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Source: http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2010/01/australia-in-full-recovery-mode.html
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U.S. Treasury Deficit More than 10% of GDP
The U.S. registered its largest December budget deficit on record as higher unemployment reduced revenue and the government spent money to help the economy recover.
The excess of spending over revenue rose to $91.9 billion last month, compared with a deficit of $51.8 billion in December 2008, the Treasury Department announced today in Washington in its monthly budget statement. The U.S. has posted a record 15 straight monthly deficits.
The December figure caps a calendar year in which the deficit widened to an all-time high, featuring unprecedented government spending to help engineer an economic recovery. The deepest recession in seven decades also resulted in the worst year for tax collections since 2004, according to calculations by Bloomberg News, as companies suffered and more Americans were shuffled to the unemployment line.
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Source: http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2010/01/us-treasury-deficit-more-than-10-of-gdp.html
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Becoming French?
Work less, be more productive, and use that free time to be with your family.
While not necessarily done by choice, after reading Paul Krugman's July 2005 article titled 'French Family Values', I'm wondering if we're slowly becoming (or should become) French?
Source: BLS / BEA
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Source: http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2010/01/becoming-french.html
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Is 16-19 Year Old Unemployment at 37.1%?
Posted on Tuesday, January 12, 2010
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Why not do an EconomPic unemployment rate sugestion for this figure? Might lookHe is "of course" referring to the EconomPic method (a method that accounts for the huge swings in the participation rate) of calculating unemployment. Here it is...
ugly...
Nothing to add.....
Source: BLS
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Source: http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2010/01/is-16-19-year-old-unemployment-at-371.html
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