Oligopolistic Banking System and Compensation
Posted on Tuesday, January 19, 2010
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At this stage, most of us are familiar with the idea that compensation within the financial services industry has grown much faster than compensation outside the system. As can be seen below, this trend has largely gone uninterrupted throughout the crisis.
And while this level of compensation remains exorbitantly high across all of financial services, the lack of competition among the largest banks has caused compensation within the industry to become even more concentrated.
Before specifically detailing those firms, lets go to Wall Street Pit:
The Journal reported that based on its analysis — which includes banking giants J.P. Morgan, Bank of America and Citigroup, securities firms such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, and exchange operators CME Group Inc. and NYSE Euronext Inc. — executives, traders and money managers at 38 top financial firms can expect to earn nearly 18% more than they did last year, and slightly more than they did in the record year of 2007.While 18% seems like a massive jump (it is) from a level that was already too high (in my opinion), it ignores the broader issue of what has resulted from a government (i.e. taxpayer) guarantee on the downside risks of those banks deemed too big to fail... a MASSIVE increase in compensation (the joys of a "too big to fail" title for the select few).
The chart below details the compensation for all of those 38 firms, grouped here by JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup, and "Other" (all others). BUT, slice off Citi and "other" and we can see that the remaining four make up more than 100% of that 18% jump (let it be known that the data below is not an apples to apples comparison - as Felix points out these charts don't account for the fact that JP Morgan and Bank of America have swallowed up smaller counterparts).
That said, my point is that the increase in compensation (and risk) is now concentrated among only these top banks. Bonuses at these "big four" banks are up a whopping 25% since 2007 (all other firms are down 18% since that time) and 40% since 2006 (whereas all other firms are down 2%).
For all the talk and supposed intervention, nothing has changed (actually, with these banks even more "too big too fail", things may actually be worse).
Source: WSJ / BLS
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Source: http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2010/01/oligopolistic-banking-system-and.html
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J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets
Posted on Sunday, January 17, 2010
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In response to my post Sanchez Leads J-E-T-S Past Bengals Eric Hirschberg (a statistician) commented: I had to laugh at a histogram with a sample size of 4 and a data range from 1 to 2! This is data that really doesn't benefit from graphic visualization. :)
Eric- what are you talking about... the chart is beautiful! (kidding).And after an INSANE win (Chargers are [were?] the best team in the league in my opinion), here is the update....
That won't stop me from updating it with every J-E-T-S win.
J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets!
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Source: http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2010/01/j-e-t-s-jets-jets-jets_17.html
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J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets
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In response to my post Sanchez Leads J-E-T-S Past Bengals Eric Hirschberg (statistician commented): I had to laugh at a histogram with a sample size of 4 and a data range from 1 to 2! This is data that really doesn't benefit from graphic visualization. :)
Eric- what are you talking about... the chart is beautiful! (kidding).And here is the update....
That won't stop me from updating it with every J-E-T-S win.
J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets!
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Source: http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2010/01/j-e-t-s-jets-jets-jets_17.html
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EconomPics of the Week (J-E-T-S Division Playoff Edition)
Posted on Friday, January 15, 2010
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Opinion / Analysis / RandomPub Power Equity Signal Turns Negative
Becoming French?
The "Recession Generation"
Sanchez Leads J-E-T-S Past Bengals
Digger Deeper
An Alternative Unemployment Rate.... at 11.7%
Is 16-19 Year Old Unemployment at 37.1%?
Inflation is Not an Issue...
On the Retail Inventory "Bounce"
Breaking Down Wholesale Inventories
Production Continues to Recover
Economic Data
Unemployment to Job Opening Ratio Jumps Again
Consumer Deleveraging Continues
Retail Sales Disappoint
Is Australia in Full Recovery Mode?
U.S. Treasury Deficit More than 10% of GDP
And for your video of the week... I'd like to introduce you all to Bruce "B" Manley and his trick basketball shots. After my first viewing I believed this was as real as the [insert corny economics joke here], but apparently it is.
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Source: http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2010/01/econompics-of-week-j-e-t-s-division.html
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Production Continues to Recover
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Marketwatch details: Colder-than-usual weather contributed to the gain in December, with utility production rising a seasonally adjusted 5.9%. The output of factories dropped 0.1% in November after a 0.9% gain in November, repeating the see-saw pattern of the past four months. Output of mines rose 0.2%. Read our complete economic calendar and consensus forecast.
For all of 2009, output plunged 9.7%, the steepest yearly decline since output fell 13.7% in 1946. Output fell at a 12.5% annual pace in the first half of the year, then rose at a 9.6% annual pace in the final six months of the year. Since the recession began two years ago, industrial output dropped 10.8%. Manufacturing output fell 13.2% since the recession began.
In December, capacity utilization in industry rose to 72% from 71.5%. It's the highest in a year. For manufacturing, capacity utilization rose to 68.6% from 68.5%, also the highest since December 2008. The utilization rate in the factory sector -- a measure of slack in the economy -- is 11 percentage points below the long-term average, showing very weak inflationary pressures.
And the relationship between capacity and inflation remains strong.
Source: Federal Reserve
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Source: http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2010/01/production-continues-to-recover.html
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Pub Power Equity Signal Turns Negative
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Time to revisit a catchy, data-mined, equity buy signal (with a decent explanation) that was first detailed at EconomPic back in September... the "Pub Power" equity buy signal.What is the Pub Power signal? As detailed back then:
It is the relative strength of 'food establishment and drinking places' sales vs. grocery sales (as expressed in year over year terms). The relevance? Well, the data seems to suggest that "Pub Power" = Strength in the Dow, one year forward.The thought was that the relative strength (i.e. demand) of restaurants relative to cooking at home shows the following characteristics:
- Consumer confidence
- Exuberance
- Spending power
- Wealth
On the other hand, when times are tough, individuals are more likely to eat at home, causing year over year sales at pubs to decline relative to grocery stores. At the time the signal pointed to a further run in the Dow and here we are 10% later.
So lets take a look at what the signal is telling us now...
Beware all of you equity investors out there... the Pub Power signal has turned negative.
Why does this matter?
Well, mining the data a bit further, from December 1993 through December 2008 (the last period in which we have one year forward data on the Dow) the Dow has returned an average of -9.8% one year forward when the "Pub Power" was negative and 10.8% when the signal was positive.
Source: Census
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Source: http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2010/01/pub-power-equity-signal-turns-negative.html
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Inflation is Not an Issue...
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Bloomberg details:The consumer-price index rose 0.1 percent, less than forecast, following a 0.4 percent gain in November, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Excluding food and energy costs, the so-called core index also increased 0.1 percent.Looking at the details, inflation is concentrated in transportation (energy). Until pricing power moves into other areas (and labor), the Fed should have no concerns over keeping rates as low as they are.
Companies may have little success raising prices with unemployment projected to average 10 percent this year, the highest annual rate in seven decades. Federal Reserve policy makers have said they expect "subdued" inflation in coming months, allowing them to keep interest rates close to zero to help fuel growth.
"Consumer pricing pressures remain very subdued," said Russell Price, a senior economist at Ameriprise Financial Inc. in Detroit, who accurately forecast the rise in the core rate. "It gives the Fed further leeway to continue keeping rates where they are well through 2010."
Source: BLS
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Source: http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2010/01/inflation-is-not-issue.html
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On the Retail Inventory "Bounce"
Posted on Thursday, January 14, 2010
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Reuters reports on the "surprise": U.S. business inventories rose more than expected in November, according to a government report on Thursday, supporting views of a pick-up in the economic growth pace during the fourth quarter.
The Commerce Department said inventories increased 0.4 percent after gaining 0.4 percent in October, previously reported as a 0.2 percent rise.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 0.2 percent rise in November. The rebuilding of inventories following a period of aggressive liquidation is among the factors expected to drive the economy's growth as it recovers from the most severe downturn since the 1930s.
As can be seen below, the "rebuild" was driven completely by wholesale trade.
And as EconomPic readers know, the build in wholesale was completely built by farm products (which was not "real" growth, but instead a reflection of the spike in the price of corn and hogs).
Does anyone do actual research anymore?
Source: Census
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Source: http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2010/01/on-retail-inventory-bounce.html
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Retail Sales Disappoint
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WSJ reports: U.S. retail sales fell in December unexpectedly, signaling restraint by consumers during the holidays as the economy wrestles with high unemployment.
Retail sales declined 0.3%, the Commerce Department said Thursday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires forecast a 0.5% increase. November sales, however, were adjusted upward, to a 1.8% increase from a previously reported 1.3% gain. October sales also rose strongly, up 1.2%.
Excluding the car sector, all other retail sales in December fell 0.2%. Economists expected a 0.3% increase. The numbers were a disappointment for the economic recovery. The retail sales data are an important indicator of consumer spending. Consumer spending makes up 70% of GDP, which is the broad measure of U.S. economic activity. Thursday's report suggests high joblessness is restraining consumers and will mute the recovery.
Forget about the overall total and look at the details. Driving more than half the contribution was an increase in the sale of gasoline (driven by the jump in the price of gasoline).
Source: Census
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Source: http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2010/01/retail-sales-disappoint.html
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Australia in Full Recovery Mode
Posted on Wednesday, January 13, 2010
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The Australian details:Australia's unemployment rate fell to a seasonally adjusted 5.5 per cent in December from 5.6 per cent in November.
Total employment rose by 35,200 to 10,906 million in December, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said.
Economists on average had expected an unemployment rate of 5.8 per cent in December, with the number of employed up 10,000.
The number of people in full-time work rose 7300 to 7.64 million in December, from 7.63m, while the number of people in part-time work rose 27,900 to 3.27m from 3.24m.
A commodity driven economy that has a close proximity to the world's fastest growing / largest commodity importing economy (China) is a beautiful thing...
Source: ABS
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Source: http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2010/01/australia-in-full-recovery-mode.html
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U.S. Treasury Deficit More than 10% of GDP
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Bloomberg details: The U.S. registered its largest December budget deficit on record as higher unemployment reduced revenue and the government spent money to help the economy recover.
The excess of spending over revenue rose to $91.9 billion last month, compared with a deficit of $51.8 billion in December 2008, the Treasury Department announced today in Washington in its monthly budget statement. The U.S. has posted a record 15 straight monthly deficits.
The December figure caps a calendar year in which the deficit widened to an all-time high, featuring unprecedented government spending to help engineer an economic recovery. The deepest recession in seven decades also resulted in the worst year for tax collections since 2004, according to calculations by Bloomberg News, as companies suffered and more Americans were shuffled to the unemployment line.
Please note that Q4 '09 GDP is estimated at 4% annualized.
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Source: http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2010/01/us-treasury-deficit-more-than-10-of-gdp.html
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Becoming French?
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Due to the number of hours worked per person collapsing at a much faster rate than real GDP, GDP per hour worked has actually been soaring.
Work less, be more productive, and use that free time to be with your family.
While not necessarily done by choice, after reading Paul Krugman's July 2005 article titled 'French Family Values', I'm wondering if we're slowly becoming (or should become) French?
Source: BLS / BEA
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Source: http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2010/01/becoming-french.html
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Is 16-19 Year Old Unemployment at 37.1%?
Posted on Tuesday, January 12, 2010
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In response to my post on 16-19 year old unemployment, reader MichaelGER asked: Why not do an EconomPic unemployment rate sugestion for this figure? Might lookHe is "of course" referring to the EconomPic method (a method that accounts for the huge swings in the participation rate) of calculating unemployment. Here it is...
ugly...
Nothing to add.....
Source: BLS
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Source: http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2010/01/is-16-19-year-old-unemployment-at-371.html
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Unemployment to Job Opening Ratio Jumps Again
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BusinessWeek details: Job openings in the U.S. fell in November to the lowest level in four months, a
sign employers are reluctant to expand staff even as payroll reductions waned from earlier last year.Openings declined by 156,000 to 2.42 million, the second- lowest level since records began in 2000, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The number of unfilled positions was down 50 percent since peaking in June 2007.
"It confirms the suspicion that most of the improvement in non-farm payroll employment has been due to reduced firing and not renewed hiring," said Zach Pandl, an economist at Nomura Securities International Inc. in New York. "This is the last shoe to drop for the recovery in the labor market and we're still waiting."
Source: BLS
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Source: http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2010/01/unemployment-to-job-opening-ratio-jumps.html
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The "Recession Generation"
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Newsweek details: We all know the type of person who came of age in the Great Depression. They are the grandmothers and grandfathers who can't use a tea bag too many times, yet are enjoying comfortable retirements in warm climates. And we know what the children of the 1950s are all about. They are the optimistic boomers who embodied an age of continual upward mobility and possibility. They have often spent more than they earned, because for them it has been a truism that times can only get better. It's no accident that the psychology of entire generations is shaped by the milieu in which they grew up; economic research tells us that our lifelong behaviors are determined in large part by the seismic events—good or bad—of our youth.The below chart details one struggle that this "Recession Generation" is facing... employment.
So, given that we have just experienced the worst economic period in 70 years, it's no surprise that people have begun to wonder what sort of consumers, investors, and citizens will be bred by the Great Recession. Will there be, in effect, a "Generation Recession" of young people whose behaviors will be permanently shaped by the downturn?
This is not necessarily a surprise as there really weren't many jobs opening up when this generation was entering the workforce (20+ year olds were the one's losing jobs, this generation never got them), but 27%!?!?!
And this is an artificially reduced rate as a participation has plunged.
Source: BLS
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Source: http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2010/01/recession-generation.html
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An Alternative Unemployment Rate.... at 11.7%
Posted on Monday, January 11, 2010
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The labor force has declined at the fastest pace over the last 12 months in more than 50 years.
Which causes the unemployment rate to skew too low as the labor force is the denominator in the unemployment rate.
Lets solve this problem shall we?
The chart below shows the labor participation rate and the rolling five year average of that rate. The key takeaway is that over the past 60 years there has been a huge secular shift as woman entered the workforce (more on that from Calculated Risk here), which effectively ended the "norm" of a single worker household.
As is typical with long term trends, this datapoint appears to have overshot to the upside and is now rolling over (individuals may have entered the workforce at some point that never planned to work because the economy was so good). As such, a more "fair" methodology (in my opinion) is to use the five year average participation rate to account for these ebbs and flows. This also alleviates the issue of believing that 1.8 million people "chose" to leave the work force over the past 6 months (yes, that is what the BLS methodology indicates).
EconomPic Unemployment Rate
Denominator: The methodology for the denominator (based on my logic detailed above) is to use the five year rolling participation rate multiplied by the civilian institutional population (i.e. those that can work) to determine the labor force.
Numerator: The EconomPic methodology is to use the number of employed rather than unemployed (some of those not in the labor force are not countered as unemployed). As a result, the initial equation = the "employed rate". Taking 1 less this employed rate gets us to the unemployed rate.
The result:
Unemployment is reduced at each "low" prior to the low of the late 90's and most recent 2007 period (both of these closely tie) and roughly matches each "peak". That is until the most recent period, indicating that something is just not right.
Whereas the "official" unemployment rate is 10% flat, the EconomPic unemployment rate is 11.7%.
Source: BLS
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Source: http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2010/01/alternative-unemployment-rate.html
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An Alternative Unemployment Rate
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The labor force has declined at the fastest pace over the last 12 months in more than 50 years.Which causes the unemployment rate to skew too low as the labor force is the denominator in the unemployment rate.
Lets solve this problem shall we?
The chart below shows the labor participation rate and the rolling five year average of that rate. The key takeaway is that over the past 60 years there has been a huge secular shift as woman entered the workforce (more on that from Calculated Risk here), which effectively ended the "norm" of a single worker household.
As is typically the case in long term trends, this datapoint appears to have overshot to the upside and is now rolling over (individuals may have entered the workforce at some point that never planned to work because the economy was so good). As such, a more "fair" methodology (in my opinion) is to use the five year average participation rate to account for these ebbs and flows. This also alleviates the issue of believing that 1.8 million people "chose" to leave the work force over the past 6 months (yes, that is what the BLS methodology indicates).
EconomPic Unemployment Rate
Denominator: The methodology for the denominator (based on my logic detailed above) is to use the five year rolling participation rate multiplied by the civilian institutional population (i.e. those that can work) to determine the labor force.
Numerator: The EconomPic methodology is to use the number of employed rather than unemployed (some of those not in the labor force are not countered as unemployed). As a result, the initial equation = the "employed rate". Taking 1 less this employed rate gets us to the unemployed rate.
The result:
Unemployment is reduced at each "low" prior to the low of the late 90's and most recent 2007 period and roughly matches each "peak". That is until the most recent period, indicating that something is just not right.
Whereas the "official" unemployment rate is 10% flat, the EconomPic unemployment rate is 11.7%.
Source: BLS
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Source: http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2010/01/alternative-unemployment-rate.html
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Breaking Down Wholesale Inventories
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Friday's surprise 1.5% gain in Wholesale Inventories (i.e. what appeared to be an inventory rebuild) was not real, just like last month's post Wholesale Inventory Correction isn't "Real" in October. As can be seen below, the spike was entirely to Farm Products (Wholesale Inventories ex Farm Products was 0.1%) and Farm Products (both livestock and grains) rocketed in price in November.
In other words, this was a nominal gain, thus will not positively impact GDP in Q4.
Source: Census
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Source: http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2010/01/breaking-down-wholesale-inventories.html
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Consumer Deleveraging Continues
Posted on Sunday, January 10, 2010
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Business Week details:Consumer credit in the U.S. dropped a record $17.5 billion in November as unemployment close to a 26- year high discouraged borrowing and banks limited access to loans.The chart below shows the change in consumer credit outstanding (year over year) as a percent of total personal consumption. In the latest period consumers have shed almost 0.82% of consumer credit outstanding as a percent of all personal consumption.
A labor market that's shed 7.2 million jobs since the recession started in December 2007 is restraining consumer spending that accounts for about 70 percent of the economy. Fed policy makers have said tighter bank lending standards and reductions in credit lines are hampering the recovery.
The series of 10 straight declines in consumer credit was the longest since record-keeping began in 1943.
Source: Federal Reserve
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Source: http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2010/01/consumer-deleveraging-continues.html
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Sanchez Leads J-E-T-S Past Bengals
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Yahoo Sports details:One playoff game into his career, Mark Sanchez is giving a pretty good off-Broadway performance.Sanchez looked like a playoff pro, joining Shaun King, Joe Flacco and Ben Roethlisberger as rookie quarterbacks to win postseason starts. At times, Sanchez found himself on the sideline soaking it all in.
So are the rest of the New York Jets, who are no longer an overlooked team after dismantling the AFC North champions twice within a week.
Any more doubters?
With their rookie quarterback playing mistake-free, the Jets turned their surprising playoff appearance into a long-running production Saturday. Sanchez threw a touchdown pass, and the NFL's top running game took it from there, setting up a 24-14 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals.
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Source: http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2010/01/sanchez-leads-j-e-t-s-past-bengals.html
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EconomPics of the Week (J-E-T-S Edition)
Posted on Friday, January 8, 2010
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Long Term TrendsWhy Does It Feel Worse than Reported?
What Happens When the Stimulus Dies?
More on Gross Purchases (and China)
Strength in U.S. Consumption... of U.S. Made Goods
Goods Producing vs. Government
Manufacturing Jobs Down 20% from 2006
Economic Data
Hours Worked per Civilian (per Week)
Men / Women Employment Results Diverge
Unemployment Drops as Workers Drop Out
ADP Jobs Down 84,000; Services Jobs Grow
Eurozone Retail Sales Show Record Decline
Same Store Sales "Surge"
Manufacturing Sector Continues to Expand
Industrial Production Declines in Eurozone for First Time Since March
Auto Sales Improved, but Still a LONG Way to Go
Asset Prices
Hedge Funds More than Fine in '09
2009 Performance Snap Shot
Other
J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets
Avatar Rounds Out Record Year at the Box Office
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Source: http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2010/01/econompics-of-week-j-e-t-s-edition.html
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Hours Worked per Civilian (per Week)
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As requested...Employment to population ratio (i.e. percent of the population working), multiplied by the number of hours worked per week, equals the second least amount of hours worked (19.32 hours from 19.4 hours in October, but up from 19.27 in September) per population member.
Source: BLS
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Source: http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2010/01/hours-worked-per-civilian-per-week.html
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More on Gross Purchases (and China)
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In response to my post Why Does it Feel Worse than Reported?, a reader asked for a follow up chart:What would be helpful here is a NET figure (& chart, of course) showing the shift (gross & per capita) from production surplus to consumption surplus. It's a little hard to read between the lines (literally) in this graphic.The difference between GDP (what the U.S. produces) and Gross Domestic Purchases (what the U.S. purchases) is net exports. Thus, the charting is easy, but the result of the chart is rather astounding. The net level of purchases over production peaked at more than $2500 per person (that is literally $2500+ in a single year for every man, woman, and child within the U.S.) in September '06. This has "collapsed" to "only" $1150 a head, but that $1350 less that each person is the U.S. has been able to purchase (without producing) is a real decline.
So where does that leave us? It leaves us with entire generations (starting with the baby boomers) that believe it is the norm to purchase more than one produces. And why not? We have been able to follow this path (with the exception of the Volcker induced recession in the early 1980's) going on 60+ years.
But as the chart above shows, the scale of this excess purchasing in the early part of this decade was without precedent, which results in the below chart. The below chart details the cumulative real purchases that have been made over that 60 year window above and beyond what was produced in this nation. Resulting from an easy money policy, plus China dollar recycling (they produce, we finance) this cumulative level of real purchases made since 1949 spiked from $3 trillion in the late 1990's to $9 trillion in 2005$ by early 2008 (tripled in ~10 years).
Note in the first chart that every previous peak resulted in a reversion and this latest period was no exception. As a base case I would suspect a continued reversion in the top chart (i.e. net imports moving to zero), but what happens if the below chart mean reverts (we actually begin producing more and purchasing less) as well?
For one... more pain for the U.S. consumer, but a second result was recently outlined by perma-bear James Chanos:
"The Chinese," he warned in an interview in November with Politico.com, "are in danger of producing huge quantities of goods and products that they will be unable to sell."We shall see...
Source: BEA
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Source: http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2010/01/more-on-gross-purchases-and-china.html
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